Strategy Faces MSCI Index Review With Potential Fund-Selling Pressure

MSCI is scheduled to release the results of its November Index Review shortly after 5 p.m. ET, putting the index treatment of Strategy, which trades under the MSTR ticker, in focus. Blockonomi reported that Strategy shares rose 0.88% to $122.14 on Wednesday, trailing gains recorded by Coinbase and BitMine ahead of the announcement. The stakes concern funds that mechanically adjust holdings when index composition changes. Blockonomi cited a JPMorgan estimate that an earlier proposal could have produced about $2.8 billion in outflows. That estimate should not be treated as the result of the November review, because the cited projection concerned a previous proposal rather than the pending decision. Coinfomania framed the decision as an exclusion scenario involving both Strategy and Metaplanet, with potential outflows estimated at $8.8 billion. The higher figure differs from the $2.8 billion estimate cited by Blockonomi, reflecting a different scope or underlying analysis, but neither outlet provided enough detail to reconcile the estimates directly. Strategy has separately said that funds tracking MSCI indexes hold approximately $1.6 billion of its stock, according to Blockonomi. That figure indicates the size of the index-linked ownership potentially affected by a portfolio change, while Coinfomania’s inclusion of Metaplanet broadens the review’s relevance beyond a single company. The broader crypto market was comparatively subdued when the review approached. Total crypto market capitalization stood at $2.52 trillion, bitcoin was up 0.45% over 24 hours, and the Fear & Greed index registered 28, indicating a “Fear” reading. The immediate items to watch are MSCI’s announcement, its treatment of Strategy and Metaplanet, and the scale of any resulting index-related portfolio adjustments.