ASIC Signals Strict Scrutiny for Prediction Markets, Citing Binary Options Ban
Australia's corporate regulator plans to treat prediction markets like banned binary options, posing challenges for platforms like Polymarket.
Australia's corporate regulator plans to treat prediction markets like banned binary options, posing challenges for platforms like Polymarket. This is an original Token Times brief synthesising 2 outlets (Cryptopolitan, The Cryptonomist), plus live market data, as of Thu, 29 Oct 2026 14:15:01 UTC.
This stance by ASIC could significantly impact the entry and operation of prediction market platforms in Australia, potentially limiting innovation and access for users in the region.
- ASIC has received no applications from prediction market operators.
- Any future applications will be assessed under binary options regulations.
- Australia's binary options ban extends through 2031.
- Polymarket's $357.88M TVL could be affected if it seeks Australian expansion.
Both Cryptopolitan and The Cryptonomist report that ASIC has not received any applications from prediction market operators and will assess any that do arrive under the same regulatory framework as binary options. They agree on the details of the binary options ban, which took effect in May 2021 and is set to last through 2031. However, Cryptopolitan emphasizes the potential challenges for platforms like Polymarket, while The Cryptonomist focuses more on the regulatory framework itself.
Australia's corporate regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (ASIC), has indicated that it will treat prediction markets with the same scrutiny as binary options, which are banned in the country until 2031.
During a parliamentary hearing, ASIC Chair Sarah Court stated that the commission has not received any applications from prediction market operators. However, any applications that do come in will be assessed under the stringent regulations that led to the ban on binary options.
The comparison between prediction markets and binary options arises from the similar nature of these financial instruments, which involve betting on the outcome of future events. The binary options ban, which took effect on May 3, 2021, reflects ASIC's cautious approach to such high-risk products.
This regulatory stance could have significant implications for platforms like Polymarket, which operate in the decentralized prediction market space. With a Total Value Locked (TVL) of $357.88M, according to DeFiLlama, Polymarket's potential expansion into Australia could be hindered by these stringent regulations.
In the broader market context, the total crypto market cap stands at $2.76T, with 
Bitcoin experiencing a 0.66% decline in the last 24 hours. The overall market remains relatively flat, with a Fear & Greed index of 51 indicating a neutral sentiment.
Figures and sectors in this story, checked live against on-chain aggregators · October 29, 2026.
Token Times reads these figures directly from on-chain aggregators (DeFiLlama, mempool.space) at build time — independent of what any outlet reported. Sector totals aggregate every protocol DeFiLlama tracks in that category. Values are live and will change.
ASIC Signals Strict Scrutiny for Prediction Markets, Citing — questions & answers
Why is ASIC comparing prediction markets to binary options?
ASIC views prediction markets as similar to binary options due to their shared nature of betting on future event outcomes, hence applying the same regulatory scrutiny.
What is the status of Australia's binary options ban?
The binary options ban in Australia began on May 3, 2021, and is set to last until 2031.
How might this affect Polymarket?
Polymarket's potential entry into Australia could be hindered by ASIC's strict regulatory approach, potentially impacting its growth and user base in the region.
Which outlets reported this story?
This is an original Token Times brief that synthesises reporting from Cryptopolitan, The Cryptonomist, with the key figures cross-checked for agreement across them. It is not a copy of any one article — follow the source links above for the original reporting.
Original summary — not financial advice. This is an original Token Times brief that summarises a development reported elsewhere and adds live market data for context; it is not the original article and reproduces no part of it. Follow the source link above for full details. Crypto is volatile and high-risk — always do your own research.