Prediction Markets Lean Toward a Lower Year-End Bitcoin Range

Bitcoin.com reports that Polymarket traders were assigning a 52% probability to Bitcoin falling to $70,000 before January, while just 9% was attached to a move back to $100,000. Kalshi participants were placing their year-end expectations mainly within a $70,000-$80,000 range. The report did not provide Kalshi’s underlying probabilities, making the two venues difficult to compare directly. The figures were published as of noon Eastern time on Saturday, Nov. 7, 2026. They describe the distribution of positions in prediction markets rather than confirmed price targets, and the reported probability of $100,000 remained small despite bitcoin trading above that level during the cited snapshot. Live market context shows Bitcoin at $75,665, down 0.23% over 24 hours and 2.52% over seven days. Its $1.52 trillion market capitalization represents the majority of a total crypto market capitalization of $2.6 trillion, which was broadly flat. The Fear & Greed index stood at 25, classified as Extreme Fear. Prediction-market liquidity remains substantial but has contracted: DeFiLlama reports Polymarket total value locked at $326.31 million, down 12.1% over seven days. The immediate focus is whether the year-end pricing on Polymarket and Kalshi shifts as bitcoin moves, with the $70,000-$80,000 range central to the reported expectations.